Canada is entering what may be the hottest five-year period in its history, according to new forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Global temperatures are expected to soar to historic highs, with the year 2026 predicted to be between 1.35°C and 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels. This trend indicates that temperatures will remain at least 1.0°C above pre-industrial levels for the 13th consecutive year. Canada’s long-term forecasts suggest that from 2026 to 2030, the country could experience its hottest five-year period on record.
There is a 12% chance of surpassing the critical 1.5°C threshold set in the Paris Agreement. The goal of these forecasts is to equip governments, industries, and communities with crucial data to prepare for the ongoing effects of climate change.
The recent federal budget in Canada includes the Climate Competitiveness Strategy, aimed at bolstering carbon markets to support clean energy initiatives. Scientists attribute the rising global temperatures in recent years in part to a strong El Niño season in 2023-2024, exacerbated by climate change.
According to Climate Data Canada, the country is warming at more than double the global rate on average, with northern regions experiencing triple the rate of warming. This warming trend has led to more frequent extreme heatwaves linked to climate change, with temperatures expected to surpass 1.0°C relative to a 1991-2020 baseline in many areas, and 2.0°C in much of Canada’s North.
In British Columbia, a notably warm January is causing cherry blossoms to bloom earlier than usual in parts of Metro Vancouver. While not breaking records, the month has been mild, with temperatures tracking about two degrees above average and below-normal precipitation levels.