The Quebec Liberal Party has erased the Parti Québécois’ once sizable lead and now sits virtually tied with its rival, according to a new Léger survey conducted for Le Journal and TVA.
The poll shows the PQ at 31 per cent support, just ahead of the Liberals at 30 per cent. In December, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and his party enjoyed an 18-point advantage over the Liberals.
Related:
The shift comes as Charles Milliard settles into his role as Liberal leader, helping the party regain ground after earlier setbacks. A brief surge following the arrival of Pablo Rodriguez faded amid controversy, but recent numbers suggest renewed momentum for the federalist party.
The Coalition Avenir Québec is not benefiting from the current climate of economic uncertainty and has, for the first time, fallen behind the Conservatives.
Despite the tightening race overall, the PQ maintains a strong foothold in francophone ridings, where it captures 39 per cent of intended votes. The Liberals have improved among francophone voters as well, reaching 19 per cent in that key electorate ahead of the October election.
With results at these levels, the PQ would remain positioned to win the most seats, though the prospect of forming a majority government appears less certain.
Support for independence weakens
Backing for Quebec sovereignty has dropped to its lowest point since the 1995 referendum. Only 29 per cent of respondents said they would vote in favour of independence if a referendum were held now, while 71 per cent would vote against it.
The polling period began the day before U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, adding to global instability that includes the election of Donald Trump, the imposition of tariffs and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Fréchette widens lead in CAQ race
Within the CAQ, Christine Fréchette has expanded her advantage in the party’s leadership contest. 70 per cent of CAQ supporters consider her the best choice to lead, compared with 20 per cent for Bernard Drainville.
Earlier this year, Fréchette had helped push the party into second place in polling. The latest results, however, show the CAQ trailing both the Liberals and the PQ, with Fréchette now behind Milliard overall and tied with Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime.
The online survey was conducted from Feb. 27 to March 2, 2026, among 1,041 respondents aged 18 and over across Quebec. The data were weighted to reflect the province’s population. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.04 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
