It’s federal byelection day, with voters heading to the polls in two Toronto ridings and one in Terrebonne.
The election in Terrebonne comes after one of the closest races in Canadian history.
The Liberals initially flipped the longtime Bloc Québécois riding by just a single vote, declaring Tatiana Auguste the winner.
The result was later overturned by the Supreme Court in February following a legal challenge by Bloc candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, after an Elections Canada error prevented at least one vote from being counted.
Political analyst Karim Boulos says Monday’s rematch between Auguste and Sinclair-Desgagné is the most important among the three races for Prime Minister Mark Carney.
“It’s the only race that matters,” Boulos said, adding that Rosdale and Scarborough, vacated by the exit of former ministers Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair, were seen as safe Liberal seats.
“Terrebonne is going to be a very interesting litmus test,” Boulous said. “Typically, byelections are opportunities for people to complain and put their grievances out there with the party in power — ‘we don’t like this and we don’t like that,’ — so it’s a chance to oppose.”
However, Boulos said given Carney is riding a popular wave both at home and abroad following his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, a strong victory in Terrebonne will consolidate his sense of majority.
Carney’s government is just one seat away from winning the majority after yet another Conservative MP, Marilyn Gladu, defected to join the Liberal ranks.
Boulos says the Terrebonne byelection will also have implications for the upcoming provincial election in Quebec.
“This is a strategic alignment opportunity. Do you want to align with an opposition vote … or do you want to align with the party in power?”
He says when provincial parties align with the party in power at the federal level, they can gain funding opportunities or get projects approved.
“Mr. Carney, even in Quebec, has been seen quite favorably,” Boulos said. “I think it’s a golden opportunity for him to make inroads in future seats in Quebec as well.”
More than 18,000 – one-fifth of Terrebonne voters – have cast their ballots in advance polling. Boulos sees that as a sign the Liberals’ effort to get people to the ballot box has worked.
