According to a recent Segma Research poll, Soraya Martinez Ferrada, the leader of Ensemble Montréal, leads the race for mayor. However, with over a third of voters still undecided, the final outcome remains uncertain.
The survey, conducted by Radio-Canada, reveals that Martinez Ferrada has secured the backing of 26% of decided voters. Following closely behind is Luc Rabouin from Projet Montréal at 18%, and Gilbert Thibodeau from Action Montréal at 8%.
Craig Sauvé, the leader of Transition Montréal, holds 5% support, while Jean-François Kacou of Futur Montréal has 3% support.
Segma president Raynald Harvey notes that Martinez Ferrada’s lead is mainly due to her strong support among Anglophone and Allophone Montreal residents, whereas Francophone voters, who typically have a higher voter turnout, are more evenly split between her and Rabouin.
Interestingly, the poll indicates that 37% of respondents are still undecided. Moreover, a majority of 55% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the current mayor Valérie Plante’s performance.
Independent candidates Fang Hu, Jean Duval, and Katy Le Rougetel each garnered 1% or less in support.
Important dates to remember are the advance polls on Oct. 26 (12 p.m. to 8 p.m.) and the voting day on Nov. 2 (10 a.m. to 8 p.m.).
The Segma Research poll, carried out by Radio-Canada from October 3 to 9, 2025, involved 1,002 residents of Montreal, 504 residents of Laval, and 500 residents of Longueuil on the electoral list. Although the margin of error is not applicable due to part of the sample being drawn from a panel, a probabilistic sample of the same size would have a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighted by age, gender, education, and language spoken at home to accurately represent the target population.
