The Canadian real estate market is set for a mix of highs and lows in 2026, according to a recent report. While overall prices are predicted to rise by 1% compared to the previous year, two major cities, Metro Vancouver and Greater Toronto, are bucking the trend.
Royal LePage, a prominent real estate firm, forecasts a decline in home prices for Metro Vancouver. The aggregate price is expected to drop by 3.5% to $1,147,868, with single-family detached properties facing a sharper decrease of 5% to a median price of $1,610,915. Condominium prices are also likely to fall by 3% to $712,853.
The oversupply of homes in Vancouver is cited as the primary reason for the downward market trend. The abundance of available properties is leading potential buyers to adopt a cautious approach, delaying their purchasing decisions.
Randy Ryalls, a managing broker at Royal LePage, notes that the sluggish sales and increasing inventory levels in Vancouver are contributing to buyers’ reluctance to act swiftly. Economic uncertainties are further dampening the housing market, making buyers hesitant to invest in new properties.
Ryalls highlights that move-up buyers are particularly affected, facing challenges in selling their current homes before making a new purchase. This cycle adds to the supply glut in the Lower Mainland region.
Looking ahead, Ryalls suggests that a potential interest rate cut could inject some momentum into the market, although such a move appears unlikely as of now. The Bank of Canada’s upcoming decision on interest rates is eagerly anticipated, with experts not expecting a shift from the current rate of 2.25%.
Besides Vancouver, Greater Toronto is another region where real estate prices are projected to decline by 4.5% year over year to $1,054,129. On the flip side, Calgary and Edmonton are expected to see price increases of 1.5% and 2% respectively. Montreal and Quebec City stand out with significant price hikes, with Quebec City leading at 12%.