A new poll pitting potential B.C. Conservative leaders against Premier David Eby shows a clear frontrunner.
After surveying over 1,000 British Columbians last week, Mainstreet Research says respondents prefer all Conservative candidates for party leader over the BC NDP, but proportionally, just one could secure a majority government.
After several dropped out of the running in recent days, the B.C. Conservative leadership race has narrowed to four candidates: Iain Black, Caroline Elliott, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, and Peter Milobar.
“Only Peter Milobar would result in a clear majority,” said the poll, published Monday.
Under the current interim leader, Trevor Halford, it says the B.C. Conservative trail the Eby-led NDP by almost 2 points — 38.6 per cent to 36.8 per cent. But, it says Milobar scores 37.7 per cent among all voters and 43.8 per cent among decided voters — a 5.5-point lead over the NDP.
The report says the Kamloops Centre MLA’s lower ‘undecided’ rate suggests he “mobilizes softer Conservative support more effectively.”
Mainstreet Research President and CEO Quito Maggi says the support Milobar does earn comes from key ridings in Vancouver and the Lower Mainland.
“That’s where the B.C. Conservatives need to do well. There’s a lot of very fixed, hard B.C. Conservative seats in the Interior. And then where they need to make gains is in Vancouver [Census Metropolitan Area],” Maggi explained.
“And because he does better in that region, that’s why he secures the larger majority.”
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He says poll respondents were likely also drawn to Milobar’s economic platform.
“Across Canada, and across North America and our polling, people’s top concerns are largely economic: cost of living, housing, and rent affordability, jobs and economic development. I think the fact that he’s focusing on some of those things makes them more widely acceptable to a broader coalition of voters.”
Maggi says the poll represents voters imagining their ideal leader, while race draws extra notoriety.
“Because of the media attention on the leadership race, I think all the Conservative leadership candidates are getting a lot more attention… there’s a larger pool of accessible Conservative voters for each of the candidates.”
He noted that the BC Green Party under Emily Lowan polled at 11.6 per cent among decided voters, granting the party two seats in each of the poll’s projected scenarios.
Mainstreet Research polled 1,054 British Columbian adults between March 11 and March 13. A probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Results for sub-groups carry bigger margins of error.
—With files from David Nadalini