New 50 per cent U.S. tariffs are putting pressure on Quebec businesses, with about $7.7 billion in provincial exports affected.
Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from what he called a “bad deal” after Washington made last-minute demands involving auto tariffs, Canada’s ability to make trade deals with other countries, and Quebec’s French-language and cultural protections.
“When you stand strong, things that are not on the table are not on the table. We’re not going to compromise,” said Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne.
A new Angus Reid Institute poll finds 76 per cent of Canadians support Ottawa’s decision to walk away from the talks.
The poll also found that 38 per cent of Canadian workers say they have at least some concern about losing their jobs. And 89 per cent are concerned about the impact on the cost of goods and services.
Quebec Premier Chistine Fréchette was in Lévis with Carney Monday to announce $11 billion in federal and provincial funding for six icebreakers, a project expected to support thousands of Quebec jobs and strengthen Canada’s Arctic and trade routes.
“We must rely more on our own resources and our own talents,” Fréchette said. “It is essential to ensuring our strategic autonomy.”
For Quebec’s aluminum industry, the immediate impact is different.
“We represent, in the association, the three world-class primary aluminium producers,” said Jean Simard, president and CEO of the Aluminium Association of Canada.
“We produce 3.3 million tons a year. We ship 90 per cent of this to the U.S.”
Simard says aluminum producers have already been paying a 50 per cent U.S. tariff since last year. The bigger concern, he says, is the downstream businesses processing that metal.
“They’re the ones that are more impacted,” he said.
“It’s going to impact small and medium businesses. That’s where governments have to come in and make sure that they have the agility to dive in very early on and support financially those businesses.”
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Trucking isn’t directly targeted by the tariffs, but Marc Cadieux, CEO of the Quebec Trucking Association, says the industry could take a major hit if fewer goods are moving across the border.
“So obviously, our industry will be impacted hard,” Cadieux said.
According to Cadieux, about 1.2 million trucks cross Quebec’s border every year, and trucking carries 55.5 percent of the value of Canada-U.S. trade. He says it’s too early to know how many jobs could be affected, but layoffs are a possibility.
“If trucks do not move and haul any more merchandise, obviously the workforce will have to be looked at,” he said.
Economist Moshe Lander says the overall Canadian economy is large enough to absorb the shock.
“Keep in mind the Canada’s economy is around $2.5 trillion,” said the Concordia University economics professor. “So this is a bit of a rounding error here. So even with 50 per cent tariffs, this is not the type of thing that’s going to completely turn us into a woe-is-me recession.
But Lander says that doesn’t mean individual businesses — or their workers — won’t feel it.
“For Canadian businesses, the last thing that they need is uncertainty,” he said.
Rebuilding trust with Canada’s biggest trading partner could take time.
“The way things have been going, this is not a trustworthy relationship,” said Simard. “So we’re going to have to rebuild that sense of trust between the two countries.”
