A new poll shows the Ontario Liberals maintaining a narrow lead over the Progressive Conservatives, while Premier Doug Ford’s personal approval has dropped a sharp 24 per cent as his government faces mounting scrutiny over MPP hotel expenses.
Liaison Strategies’ Ontario Political Tracker, conducted July 20 and July 21, finds the Liberals at 38 per cent among decided and leaning voters, ahead of the PCs at 33 per cent and the NDP at 24 per cent. Among all voters, including undecided respondents, the Liberals sit at 33 per cent, the PCs at 29 per cent, and the NDP at 21 per cent.
Ford’s approval numbers are the standout finding: 72 per cent disapprove of his performance as premier. Liaison principal David Valentin noted that the trend is unmistakable.
“Ford’s personal numbers are the bigger problem… Just 24 per cent approve of the job he is doing as Premier. That is the lowest approval and highest disapproval we have measured for Ford in this tracker.”
The poll arrives as the Ford government deals with backlash over thousands of dollars in hotel claims submitted by PC MPPs — including members who live within commuting distance of Queen’s Park. Ford has apologized and said the expenses will be repaid.
Valentin says the scandal may not be the cause of the movement, but it reinforces a damaging political narrative.
“When an incumbent premier is already at 24 per cent approval, stories about MPPs billing taxpayers for Toronto hotel rooms are exactly the kind of thing that reinforces a bad frame.”
Only 26 per cent of respondents believe Ontario is headed in the right direction, while 71 per cent say it is on the wrong track.
The race remains fractured across Ontario:
The poll also tested attitudes toward large data‑centre development in Ontario — an increasingly prominent policy debate.
Key findings include:
Valentin says affordability concerns dominate both the data‑centre debate and the expense scandal.
“If voters think a project will raise their hydro bill, they want the company — not the household — to pay. That same fairness instinct applies to the expense scandal.”
Liaison surveyed 1,000 Ontarians using IVR technology, with results weighted to 2021 Census targets.
