Olivia Chow has an 11-point lead over Brad Bradford among decided and leaning voters according to a new Liaison Strategies poll on the upcoming Toronto mayoral election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, says Chow’s position has improved since Liaison’s Aug. 7 poll on the same topic.
“The ballot has moved back toward a clearer Chow advantage,” Valentin said. “Among decided and leaning voters, Chow is at 49 per cent, Bradford is at 38 percent, (Chris) Alexander is at 11 per cent, and someone else is at three per cent.
“Compared with Aug. 7, Chow is up two points, Bradford is down two, and Alexander is up one.”
Among all voters, Chow is at 39 per cent, Bradford is at 30 per cent, Alexander is at nine per cent, someone else is at two per cent, and 19 per cent are undecided.
Valentin says the considerable “undecided” category makes things interesting, with Chow’s lead considerable, but not exactly insurmountable.
“Chow is ahead, but there is still a large enough undecided pool for the campaign to matter,” he notes.
There are areas where Bradford holds the lead, notably among male voters, and in Etobicoke where his vow to remove a 5.7-kilometre stretch of bike lanes along Bloor Street West has resonated.
“Bradford’s challenge is that his vote is real, but narrower,” Valentin notes. “Among decided and leaning voters, he leads men 47 per cent to 39 per cent and leads in Etobicoke 56 per cent to 34 per cent.
“Chow leads women 58 per cent to 29 per cent, downtown 59 per cent to 27 per cent, North York 51 per cent to 35 per cent, and Scarborough 46 per cent to 37 per cent.”
The poll, released early Thursday morning, reveals that issues like bike lanes and the next mayor’s relationship with Ontario Premier Doug Ford are among the most important to Torontonians.
Valentin calls bike lanes “a major voting issue,” but stresses opinions on them are nuanced and vary dramatically in different parts of the city.
“Sixty-five per cent say a candidate’s position on bike lanes will be important to their vote,” he said. “But the policy result is not a mandate to rip out the network: 35 per cent want more bike lanes, 34 per cent want roughly the current number, and 26 per cent want some removed.”
“The geography of bike lanes is stark,” he adds. “Downtown voters are in a different conversation than Etobicoke voters: Downtown is 49 per cent build more and 13 per cent remove some, while Etobicoke is 20 per cent build more and 40 per cent remove some. That is a real citywide fault line.”
When it comes to the next mayor’s relationship with Premier Ford and the Ontario government, the poll shows voters want a balanced approach.
“The Ford relationship numbers are maybe the most revealing,” Valentin says. “Voters do not want a mayor who only collaborates or only fights.
“Forty-eight per cent say the next mayor should balance both, compared with 25 per cent who want the mayor to stand up forcefully and 19 per cent who want collaboration.”
Valentin says Chow gets a “decent grade” on her relationship with Ford, with 50 per cent approving of how she’s handled dealings with Ford and the province compared to 40 per cent who disapprove.
“That is not universal approval, but it gives her room,” he said.
Also looking good for Chow, Valentin stresses, is a bump in the number of voters who approve of the direction of the city.
“Two weeks ago right direction and wrong direction were tied at 46 per cent each,” he said. “This week, right direction is ahead 48 per cent to 45 per cent. It is better ground for an incumbent than a tied or negative mood.”
The election will be held on Oct. 26.
Methodology: Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from Aug. 14 to Aug. 16, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for sub-samples. Totals may not add up to 100 per cent due to rounding.
