Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives have surged ahead in the polls, with Premier Doug Ford’s approval rating seeing a significant boost. A recent survey by Liaison Strategies conducted on August 23–24 reveals that the PCs now lead with 39% support among decided and leaning voters, surpassing the Ontario Liberals at 35%, the NDP at 20%, and other parties at lower percentages.
These results come amidst escalating tensions in the Canada-U.S. trade war, with the recent implementation of new U.S. tariffs. Premier Ford and U.S. President Trump have engaged in a public feud over trade, exchanging personal insults that have captured headlines.
Ford’s approval rating has risen from 24% in July to 36%, a substantial increase during this period dominated by trade disputes. However, a majority of respondents, 61%, still disapprove of his performance. The survey also indicates that only 27% of Ontarians believe the province is moving in the right direction, while 72% feel it is on the wrong track.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, noted the significant shift in the political landscape, attributing it to the ongoing trade war. The survey reflects the impact of the latest U.S. tariffs and the personal clash between Ford and Trump on voters’ perceptions of the Premier.
Respondents overwhelmingly support retaliatory measures against the U.S., particularly visible ones, but show caution when potential economic consequences are considered. Federal Conservative voters are particularly hesitant towards harsher retaliation measures.
When asked about priority actions, additional tariffs received 32% support, while 17% favored more financial aid for affected workers and businesses. Restricting electricity or critical-mineral exports and banning American alcohol from LCBO stores were also among the choices, with varying levels of support.
The option of restricting electricity or critical-mineral exports raised the most concern among respondents, at 24%, highlighting worries about potential impacts on jobs, prices, and investments. The survey, which involved 1,500 Ontarians surveyed through IVR technology, was conducted using both landline and mobile RDD. Data was weighted to 2021 Census targets, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
